$30,000 Betting System Challenge

I am so confident that betting systems don't work I'm putting my money where my mouth is. I will wager $30,000 against your $3,000 that your betting system can't beat the house. (Or I'll wager my $10,000 against your $1,000, if you prefer.)

Years ago the Wizard of Odds used to offer a similar challenge, but after many years he had only one legitimate taker. (The challenger lost, of course.) Everyone else who wrote to him was simply trying to waste his time by trying to get him to test their system for free or at a discount, despite his explicitly saying that he wouldn't entertain any such offers. After years of getting all these illegitimate inquiries and only one legitimate taker he stopped offering the challenge. So now I'm picking up where he left off and offering a similar challenge myself, though as predicted, every single inquiry I've received to date is from someone wasting my time by suggesting something outside the terms of the challenge.

I realize that we all want to believe that there's a way to beat the casinos, because knowing a guaranteed way to win would be a lot of fun. But no such way exists, and wanting something else to be true doesn't make it so. Yes, there are people selling their "winning systems" all over the Internet, but if they had truly figured out a way to win at gambling, why on earth would they be trying to sell it to you for $29.95? Why wouldn't they be traveling the world in the most extreme luxury possible, rather than running a dinky little website selling a gambling system for $29.95 a pop? Would that really be the best use of their time?

And if their system really worked, why haven't they accepted my challenge? Why aren't they falling all over themselves to make an easy $30,000 from me by proving their system works? It's simple: Because it doesn't work.

Anyway, here are the terms of my challenge.

Bluejay's $30,000 challenge

1. I will wager my $30,000 against your $3,000 (or my $10,000 against your $1,000, if you prefer) that your betting system cannot beat a game of roulette (single- or double-zero), baccarat, or craps (3-4-5 odds), as the player using standard U.S. rules over one billion computer-simulated rounds, as per the additional terms below. You win the challenge if your system shows a profit at the end of the simulation, I win if it does not.
   
   
2. Your system must be one that could actually be used in a Vegas casino, since the point of your challenge should be to prove that you can win in a casino environment. So, for example, methods that attempt to exploit the computer's random number generator are specifically disallowed. Any system that wins by screwing with the RNG cannot win in a real casino. Similarly, any system that cannot be actually be employed by an average person with nothing more than a pen and paper is disallowed. Also, card-counting systems in baccarat are disallowed, because the whole point of this challenge is to test traditional betting systems, where bet size and placement is based on the outcome of previous rounds.
   
   
3. Bet spread and Bankroll. The largest bet in your system can be no more than 500 times the smallest bet. (e.g., $1 to $500, or $5 to $2,500, etc.) In craps, this is for initial bets (e.g., pass line bets), not odds bets.  Odds bets are 3-4-5 and limited by the amount of the pass line bet. A bet need not be placed on every round, but one billion rounds must be wagered on in total for the test to be complete. No more than 100 rounds may pass without a bet being made. Bankroll isn't a factor -- we'll assume you always have enough money to place your next bet.
   
   
4. You must explain the rules of the system clearly and unambiguously. At the start of any given round, it should be dead obvious how the player is supposed to wager.
   
   
5. Your $3000 (or $1000) must be deposited in escrow up front with an attorney who is a neutral third party. I will deposit my $30,000 (or $10,000) in escrow with my own attorney after I receive confirmation of your own deposit. After I make my deposit, you may not withdraw from the challenge. The only way for you to reclaim your deposited money is to win the challenge, otherwise you forfeit. (Please do not deposit any money until you hear back from me that I agree your offer is legitimate and we execute a contract.)
   
   
6. I will program a computer simulation and provide you with the source code so you can have your own expert(s) verify its accuracy. If you believe my code to be in error and I disagree, you may submit the case to binding arbitration through the American Arbitration Association, at your expense, where you can have your expert(s) challenge my code (and I can have my expert(s) defend it), with the arbiter deciding the issue.
   
   
7. Since the first would-be challenger who wrote to me was concerned that I would use his winning system in the casinos myself to capitalize on it, I promise as part of our contract to do no such thing.
   
   
8. In addition to the $30,000 (or $10,000), a winning challenger will also receive, on the front page of VegasClick.com, a prominent ad on the front of VegasClick.com for the system along with my endorsement (if the system is for sale), or my personal note that the challenger won the challenge (if the system isn't for sale), for a period of at least one year from the date of the test.
   
   
9. I reserve the right to publish the results of the challenge, but will not disclose the challenger's name, contact information, or the specific rules of the system without the challenger's permission. I will however be allowed to describe the system in general terms. (e.g., "This is a standard positive-progression system," "This system is based on betting on red after a certain pattern of red/black hits has been established," etc.) If the system is for sale to the public I will be allowed to identify the system name and link to its website, if any.

I do not test betting systems outside of this challenge, period. If you want me to test your betting system, your only option is to put up $1,000 or $3,000 and submit to the challenge, period. Thank you for understanding.

Those who are confident and who agree to the terms above are invited to accept this challenge.

For those who don't want to share their secret

I get a lot of mail from people saying that the $30k I'm offering is far too low for a system that can beat the house. Such people can congratulate themselves on missing the point. This challenge is to debunk any of the scores of worthless systems that are for sale to the general public for $29.95, or $99.95, or whatever. If those people were willing to give away their "secrets" for $29.95, then certainly my $30,000 is sufficient.

If someone thinks they have a winning system but they're not selling it, they're welcome to their delusion, but they can't expect me (or anyone else) to believe them if they won't put it to the test, or show any evidence that they've actually won consistently with it themselves. I always tell such people to write back when they've made their first million, but of course they never do.

Potential Challengers

It is of no surprise to me that people who write me about their belief in betting systems also cannot spell or write proper English, and are way more likely to be writing from an AOL address. Here is an exchange between me and a potential challenger in February 2008, referred to me by the Wizard of Odds after the challenger wrote to him.

The Wizard of Odds forwarded your message to me.  The Wizard no longer offers his betting systems challenge (and says so on his site) but I offer a similar challenge.  If you would like to put your betting system to the test you can see the details of my challenge here:

http://VegasClick.com/gambling/betting-system-challenge.html

Please note that as I say on the challenge page, I do not test systems outside of the challenge.  The only way I will evaluate a system is through the challenge process.

If you would like to accept the challenge, you will need to write from a non-AOL address, since I don't accept mail from AOL.

Thank you,

-MBJ-
Editor, VegasClick.com

                      its Dominick again i have no problem with putting up 3 grand to test this and would rather just pay the money to do the simulation because the is for my own info not to take 30 grand from you. but before we go any futher how do i know ur not going look to capitalize on what you see thats how confident i am of what i have so i will pay you double if you set me up to do my own simulation i will share the results with you but not how it works  so think about it i will be in vegas march 9 until march 13

i have no problem with putting up 3 grand to test this and would rather just pay the money to do the simulation because the is for my own info not to take 30 grand from you

No.  As I said in my message to you and on the website, I do not test betting systems outside of this challenge. If you want me to test your betting system, your only option is to put up $1,000 or $3,000 and submit to the challenge, period.  The reason for this is that I'm not doing it for the money.  I already have more money than I could ever want, so your $3,000 means little to me.  My interest in doing this is to disprove betting systems.  If I'm not able to report that a betting system failed the test, I'm not interested in undertaking the test.  Even though money is not my objective I still have to require challengers to put up front money or else my In Box would be flooded with people who want to try the challenge for free.

but before we go any futher how do i know ur not going look to capitalize on what you see

It's like asking me, "If I show you my magic beans, how do I know you won't steal them?"  I'm not concerned, because I don't believe in magic beans.  Likewise, as someone who believes in the laws of math, I don't believe you have a successful betting system.  And as I said, I already have more money than I need, so I have no burning desire to make more.  But if it makes you feel better, I stipulate that if your system is truly successful I will not use it in a casino.

i will share the results with you but not how it works

This makes no sense.  How on earth can I program a simulation if you don't tell me what the rules of the system are?

If you (1) are willing to submit to the challenge, and (2) are willing to tell me the rules of the system so that I can program it, then we can proceed.  Otherwise, I'm sorry that I couldn't help you.

Not surprisingly, I never heard back from him.

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