Also, know that Parkinson's drugs encourage gambling.

$30,000 Betting System Challenge

Five years and counting without a taker (started April 2008)

Any betting system that promises to make you a winner is junk, and I'm so confident about this that I'm putting my money where my mouth is:  I'll wager $30,000 against any system seller's $3,000 that their betting system can't beat the house.  (Or I'll wager my $10,000 against their $1,000, if they prefer.)  My goal is to show that every huckster selling a "winning system" on the Internet for $29.95 (or whatever) is selling pure junk.  Not a single one of these scam artists has ever put their system to the test with me.  The reason is simple:  They know their systems don't work.

I hope it's also obvious to everyone that if someone had truly figured out a way to beat the house, why would they need to sell that secret for $29.95?

Years ago the Wizard of Odds used to offer a similar challenge, but after many years he had only one legitimate taker.  (The challenger lost, of course.)  Everyone else who wrote to him was simply trying to waste his time by trying to get him to test their system for free or at a discount, despite his explicitly saying that he wouldn't entertain any such offers.  After years of getting all these illegitimate inquiries and only one legitimate taker he stopped offering the challenge.  So now I'm picking up where he left off and offering a similar challenge myself, though as predicted, almost every inquiry has been from someone trying to waste my time by suggesting something outside the terms of the challenge.  I had only one legitimate inquiry, but that person realized that his system doesn't actually work, so he didn't go through with the bet.

The challenge is actually available to anyone, whether their system is being sold to the public or not.  While those not selling their systems would be expected to just employ their systems in the casino rather than going the challenge route, one would-be challenger thought that it would be quicker to win the $30k from me through the challenge than to win it in the casino, and I told him he could.  (He later backed out, though.)  So the challenge is available to anyone, as long as they agree to my very generous terms.

Anyway, here are the terms of my challenge.

Bluejay's $30,000 challenge

1. The Challenge.  I will wager my $30,000 against your $3,000 (or my $10,000 against your $1,000, if you prefer) that your betting system cannot beat a game of roulette, baccarat, or craps, as the player, using common Vegas rules, starting with a generous $5000 bankroll (play money, not real money), in a computer simulation, as per the additional terms below.
   
   
2. Length.  Each test will run for 200,000 rounds.  A "round" is an event where any bet is resolved.  It's fine for your system to sit out sometimes to wait for "streaks" or other conditions (up to 20 million rounds sat out per test), but 200,000 rounds must be wagered on for each test (unless your system goes bust first during a test, which will end that particular test).  We'll run this test 20 times, and you win the challenge if your system wins at least 11 out of the 20 tests.  This is generous, because your system doesn't have to win all the time, it need only win slightly more than half the time in order to beat the challenge.  (For those who think this is a bad test because "nobody plays 200,000 rounds", see the explanation further below.)
   
   
3. Betting System.  Your system must be one that could actually be used in a typical Vegas casino, since the point of your challenge should be to prove that you can win in a casino environment.  So, for example, methods that attempt to exploit the computer's random number generator are specifically disallowed.  Any system that wins by screwing with the RNG cannot win in a real casino.  Similarly, any system that cannot be actually be employed by an average person with nothing more than a pen and paper is disallowed, since if a system can't be used in the real world then it's worthless.  Your system must be a traditional betting system, where bets are based on the outcome of previous rounds.  The point of your wager must be to prove your betting system, not find some flaw in my rules.  Systems that are optimized to try to exploit some flaw in my challenge (rather than general systems which are actually intended to work in actual casinos), are specifically disallowed, as are card-counting systems.
   
   
4. Game Rules, Table Limits, & Bankroll.  You choose the game.  Roulette can be single- or double-zero.  Craps has standard 3-4-5x odds.  The table limits are $5 minimum and $5000 maximum.  In roulette, $1 wagers can be placed on any bet, with a minimum of $5 on the outside if any outside wagers are placed, and a minimum of $5 on the inside if any inside wagers are placed.  In craps, the Table Max refers to the Pass Line bet, so a Free Odds bet can exceed the table max.  The $5000 max is the total that can be wagered on one round of roulette or baccarat, or one roll in craps, excluding the odds bet.  (i.e., It's the sum of all bets placed.)  Starting bankroll for each test is $5000.
   
   
5. We'll execute a contract, and then deposit our money in escrow up front with a neutral, mutually-agreed-upon third party who will also act as judge.  If that third party has a fee, we'll split the fee equally.  After signing the contract, any party who backs out or fails to proceed as specified below will forfeit.  Either party may appeal any decision made by the judge by our employing a mutually agreed-upon neutral professional arbiter to decide the issue, with the losing party in the arbitration paying the arbiter's fees.
   
   
6. You will email me your system rules within one week of our both signing the contract.  If I feel the rules are not clear I have 48 hours to ask you to clarify, and you will have 48 hours to provide revised rules, with this process repeating if I feel the revised rules are still not clear.  After two weeks from your sending me the the initial set of rules, if I feel the last-received rules are still not clear, then at my option I can ask to the judge to rule that you forfeited by failing to submit an understandable betting system, and if the judge rules against you then you can appeal via arbitration as per above.  (This rule exists because one potential challenger submitted complete gibberish.  Fortunately for him, it was before we signed a contract.)
   
   
7. I will program a computer simulation and provide you with the results as well as the source code so you can have your own expert(s) verify its accuracy.  If you convince me of an error with my code I will correct the error and run the simulation again, with the new test being the official one.  This will repeat as many times as you find errors that I agree are errors and fix.  If you believe my code to be in error and I disagree, you can ask the judge to rule for you.  If the judge rules against you, you may submit the case to arbitration as per above.
   
   
8. Since the first would-be challenger who wrote to me was concerned that I would use his winning system in the casinos myself to capitalize on it, I promise in writing to do no such thing.  Clearly if I'm able to offer a $30,000 challenge, I already have more money than I need.
   
   
9. In addition to the $30,000 (or $10,000), a winning challenger will also receive a prominent ad on the front of VegasClick.com for the system, along with my statement that the system beat my challenge, for a period of at least one year from the date of the test.
   
   
10. I will not disclose the challenger's contact information or the specific rules of the system without the challenger's permission.  I will be allowed (but not required) to publish:
1. The address of the website selling the system, if it is for sale to the public.
2. The name of the challenger, if it appears on the challenger's own website about the betting system (otherwise, I need the challenger's permission to publish his/her name).
   
3. A general description of the system.  (e.g., "This is a standard positive-progression system," "This system is based on betting on red after a certain pattern of red/black hits has been established," etc.)
4. The overall results, including the percentage of weekend sessions won/lost, the average profit/loss for won & lost sessions, and the average lifetime profit/loss.
   

I do not test betting systems outside of this challenge, period.  My only interest in offering the challenge is to disprove betting systems; I certainly don't need any more programming work.  If all you want is a test of your system, hire anyone with some programming skills for $50 to $100, on craigslist, elance, or oDesk.  In fact, if you're not a system seller but rather somebody who just thinks he came up with a winning system, I strongly advise you to hire someone else to computer-program your system to show that your system doesn't really work before you risk your $1000 or $3000 with me.

Those who are confident and who agree to the terms above are invited to accept this challenge.

"But no one plays 200,000 rounds!"

Some folks have said the challenge is unfair because a system could win in the short term, even if it can't last 200,000 rounds.  They're missing two things.  First, I'm offering a whopping 10 to 1 odds.  With such generous odds, even a system with a lousy 11% chance of beating the challenge is a good bet for the challenger (and a bad bet for me and my $30,000).  Their system could lose 89% of the time in the real world but still beat my challenge.  And a system that loses 89% of the time in the real world is the farthest thing from a "winning betting system".  So I've got to make sure we play long enough that a challenger doesn't have even a lousy 11% chance of winning.

Next, my criteria for what constitutes a "winning system" is really soft:  In the real world, a system that showed a measly $5 profit after 200,000 rounds (less than a penny an hour) would be considered a miserable failure, but that would be enough to win a test in my challenge rules.  If my challenge required the system to win a meaningful amount (say, $20 an hour), then any system would fail almost immediately.

No one has ever accepted this challenge

One reader said that a system-seller claimed to have beaten my challenge (or perhaps the Wizard's challenge, he wasn't clear).  Let me be clear: no one has ever even accepted my challenge, let alone beaten it.  And the one person who accepted the Wizard's challenge (back when he offered it), lost it readily.  Anyone who claims they've beaten my challenge should show you the alleged contract we signed, listing the supposed escrow agent and judge, allowing you to verify whether any challenge really took place. 

Alternate "Live Casino Challenge"

1. It takes place in a Vegas (or other U.S.) casino, with you and me (or my representative) present.  You will bank and place your own bets.
   
2. You will choose the number of rounds to wager on before we begin (1000 to 10,000 rounds).  If your system is played in "sessions" it doesn't matter: you keep track of your "sessions" however you define them, they're irrelevant to me.  You win by showing the required overall profit (defined below), no matter how many "sessions" you divided your play into.
   
3. The challenge is an even-money bet between you and me (not 10-1 odds). The amount wagered between you and me is any amount you choose, between $1000 to $30,000, with a minimum of $50 per hour of play (including time you spend at the table not betting while waiting for "streaks" or other conditions). Yes, you won't know the exact number of hours you'll be playing in the casino to finish your X number of rounds, so you should estimate well to make sure you meet the minimum challenge wager. Roulette, craps, and baccarat are typically played at around 40, 50, and 70 rounds per hour respectively, but if you're waiting for streaks or other conditions then your play will be slower.
4. All play must be completed within one month.
5. Starting bankroll is 1/3 the number of total rounds, in dollars, banked by you.  (e.g., a 1500-round challenge means a starting bankroll of $500.)
6. You win if you achieve a profit of at least $15 an hour on average. (Win must be at least [total hours played] x [$15].)

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